一季度国民经济运行总体平稳
（2008年4月16日）
中华人民共和国国家统计局新闻发言人 李晓超
今年以来，面对国内遭遇历史罕见的低温雨雪冰冻灾害、国际次贷危机不断蔓延和加深的严峻复杂形势，通过采取措施，有效应对，国民经济保持了平稳较快发展。
初步核算，一季度国内生产总值61491亿元，按可比价格计算，同比增长10.6%，比上年同期回落1.1个百分点。其中，第一产业增加值4720亿元，增长2.8%，回落1.6个百分点；第二产业增加值30778亿元，增长11.5%，回落1.7个百分点；第三产业增加值25993亿元，增长10.9%，回落0.4个百分点。
1、农业灾后重建进展顺利，春耕生产势头较好。尽管年初的低温雨雪冰冻灾害对部分地区农业生产造成了不同程度的影响，但各地灾后恢复重建工作效果显著，农业生产整体恢复状况良好。根据农作物种植意向调查，预计全国粮食播种面积10562万公顷，其中夏粮2674万公顷，早稻583万公顷，秋粮7305万公顷。目前冬小麦长势良好，总体好于前期和上年同期，冬小麦一、二类苗比例为82.3%，比上年同期增加2.8个百分点。一季度，猪牛羊禽肉产量1917万吨，同比增长3.7%，其中猪肉产量1284万吨，增长2.3%。
2、工业生产增速减缓，企业利润增幅回落。一季度，全国规模以上工业增加值同比增长16.4%（3月份增长17.8%），比上年同期回落1.9个百分点。分企业类型看，国有及国有控股企业增加值增长12.9%；集体企业增长11.6%；股份制企业增长18.9%；外商及港澳台投资企业增长14.3%。分轻重工业看，重工业增长17.3%，轻工业增长14.7%。分产品看，发电量和原煤产量分别增长14.0%和14.6%；粗钢和钢材产量分别增长8.6%和12.2%；汽车增长15.8%，其中轿车增长14.7%。工业产销衔接状况良好。一季度，工业产品销售率为97.7%，比上年同期提高0.5个百分点。
1-2月份，全国规模以上工业实现利润3482亿元，同比增长16.5%，比上年同期回落27.3个百分点。在39个工业大类行业中，34个行业利润同比增长。新增利润前五大行业是：石油和天然气开采业、煤炭开采和洗选业、交通运输设备制造业、农副食品加工业、通信设备计算机及其他电子设备制造业。由于原油、煤炭价格大幅上涨，石油加工炼焦及核燃料加工业由去年的盈利转为亏损，电力、热力的生产和供应业盈利大幅度下降。若剔除这两个行业，其它行业实现利润同比增长37.5%，上升6.1个百分点。
3、固定资产投资平稳增长，中西部地区投资所占比重上升。一季度，全社会固定资产投资21845亿元，同比增长24.6%，比上年同期加快0.9个百分点。其中，城镇固定资产投资18317亿元，增长25.9%，加快0.6个百分点；农村固定资产投资3529亿元，增长18.3%，加快1.6个百分点。在城镇固定资产投资中，房地产开发投资4688亿元，增长32.3%，同比加快5.4个百分点。分产业看，三次产业投资分别增长80.8%、25.9%和25.3%。分地区看，东、中、西部地区城镇投资分别增长22.3%、35.2%和27.7%，中、西部投资占全国投资的比重分别比上年同期提高1.5和0.2个百分点。
4、国内市场销售增长加快，城乡消费均保持快速增长。一季度，社会消费品零售总额25555亿元，同比增长20.6%（3月份增长21.5%），比上年同期加快5.7个百分点。其中，城市消费品零售额17377亿元，增长21.2%；县及县以下消费品零售额8178亿元，增长19.3%。分行业看，批发和零售业消费品零售额21490亿元，增长20.4%；住宿和餐饮业3687亿元，增长23.6%。限额以上批发零售贸易业大类商品零售中，汽车类、石油及制品类、家具类和金银珠宝类均增长30%以上。
5、价格总水平处于高位，房屋销售价格继续上涨。一季度，居民消费价格总水平上涨8.0%（3月份同比上涨8.3%，环比下降0.7%），涨幅比上年同期高5.3个百分点。其中，城市上涨7.8%，农村上涨8.7%。分类别看，一季度，食品价格上涨21.0%，拉动价格总水平上涨6.8个百分点；居住价格上涨6.6%，拉动价格总水平上涨1个百分点；其余各类商品价格略有涨跌。一季度，商品零售价格同比上涨7.4%（3月份上涨7.8%），比上年同期高5.3个百分点；工业品出厂价格同比上涨6.9%（3月份上涨8.0%），比上年同期高4.0个百分点；原材料、燃料、动力购进价格同比上涨9.8%（3月份上涨11.0%），比上年同期高5.7个百分点；70个大中城市房屋销售价格同比上涨11.0%（3月份上涨10.7%），比上年同期高5.4个百分点。
6、出口增速回落，实际使用外资增长加快。一季度，进出口总额5704亿美元，同比增长24.6%，比上年同期加快1.3个百分点。其中，出口3059亿美元，增长21.4%，回落6.4个百分点;进口2645亿美元，增长28.6%，加快10.4个百分点。贸易顺差414亿美元，同比减少49亿美元。从动态看，2月份因受上年基数较高的影响，出口同比增长6.5%，增速回落45.2个百分点，但3月份增速又恢复到增长30.6%的水平，加快23.7个百分点。一季度，实际使用外商直接投资274亿美元，同比增长61.3%。3月末，国家外汇储备余额16822亿美元，比上年末增加1539亿美元。
7、城乡居民收入继续提高，城镇新增就业稳定增加。一季度，城镇居民人均可支配收入4386元，同比增长11.5%。农村居民人均现金收入1494元，同比增长18.5%。一季度，全国城镇新增就业人数303万人，完成全年新增就业1000万人目标的30.3%。其中，下岗失业人员实现再就业128万人，完成全年实现再就业500万人目标的25.6%。
8、货币供应量增速回落，新增贷款有所减少。3月末，广义货币（M2）余额423055亿元，同比增长16.3%，比上年同期回落1个百分点；狭义货币供应量(M1)150867亿元，增长18.3%，回落1.6个百分点；流通中现金（M0）30433亿元，增长11.1%，回落5.6个百分点。金融机构各项贷款比年初增加13326亿元，同比少增891亿元。各项存款增加26353亿元，多增7606亿元。1-3月份，货币净投放58亿元，同比少投放258亿元。
当前要坚持以科学发展观为指导，认真贯彻落实中央经济工作会议和政府工作报告的各项部署，继续实施稳健的财政政策和从紧的货币政策，按照控总量、稳物价、调结构、促平衡的指导思想，把握宏观调控的节奏、重点和力度，力争实现国民经济又好又快发展。
| National Economy:Steady Growth in the First Quarter of 2008 |
| National Bureau of Statistics of China 2008-04-16 14:30:00 |
|
Li Xiaochao
Spokesman
National Bureau of Statistics of China
16 April 2008
In early 2008, in face of the unprecedented and sustained low temperature and ice storms and in face of the impact due to the spreading and growing of the subprime crisis, policies were put into place in an effective way, leading to a steady and fast economic growth.
According to preliminary estimation, the gross domestic product (GDP) of China in the first quarter of this year was 6,149.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.6 percent, which was 1.1 percentage points lower than that in the same period last year. The value added of the primary industry was 472.0 billion yuan, up by 2.8 percent, or down by 1.6 percentage points; that of the secondary industry was 3,077.8 billion yuan, up by 11.5 percent, or 1.7 percentage points lower; and that of the tertiary industry was 2,599.3 billion yuan, up by 10.9 percent, down by 0.4 percentage point.
1. Post disaster reconstruction of agriculture progressed smoothly, the momentum of spring cultivation was good. Though the low temperature and ice storms in early this year caused various degrees of negative impacts on agricultural production in some areas, the post disaster reconstruction and recovery work achieved significant results and agricultural production made a good recovery. According to a sample survey of farmers’ intention on farm crops plantation, the expected planting area for grain would reach 105.62 million hectares, of which the planting area for summer grain was 26.74 million hectares, 5.83 million hectares for early rice and 730.5million hectares for autumn crops. At present, the growth of crop seedlings of winter wheat was good while the overall situation was better than that in the previous year. The proportion of first and second grade seedlings accounted for 82.3 percent of the total, which was 2.8 percentage points higher than that of last year. In the first quarter of this year, the total output of pork, beef, mutton and poultry meat reached 19.17 million tons, a year-on-year growth of 3.7 percent, and the output of pork, specifically, was 12.84 million tons, up by 2.3 percent.
2. The growth rate of industrial production slowed down coupled with a drop of profits made by enterprises. In the first quarter of this year, the total value added of the industrial enterprises above designated size was up 16.4 percent year-on-year (growth in March was 17.8 percent), or 1.9 percentage points lower than that in the first quarter of 2007. Analysis on different types of enterprises showed that the value added growth of the state-owned and state holding enterprises went up by 12.9 percent; collective enterprises, 11.6 percent; share-holding enterprises, 18.9 percent; and 14.3 percent growth for enterprises funded by foreign investors or investors from Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan provinces. The year-on-year growth of heavy industry was 17.3 percent, and 14.7 percent for the light industry. If grouped by products, power generation and the production of coal were up by 14.0 percent and 14.6 percent respectively; the production of crude steel and steel products rose by 8.6 percent and12.2 percent respective; and the production of motor vehicles went up by 15.8 percent, and its car sector went up by 14.7 percent. The production and market of industrial products went on well. In the first quarter of this year, the sales ratio of industrial products was 97.7 percent, an increase of 0.5 percentage point over that in the previous year.
In the first two months of this year, the profits made by industrial enterprises above designated size stood at 348.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.5 percent, or 27.3 percentage points lower. Among the 39 industrial divisions, 34 divisions registered year-on-year growth with profits. The top five divisions of profits were petroleum and natural gas exploitation; coal mining and washing; manufacturing of transportation equipment; farm and sideline products processing industry; and manufacturing of general telecommunication equipment, computers and other electronic equipment. Due to the price rise of crude oil and coal, the petroleum processing and coking, and the nuclear fuel processing industry suffered loses early this year whereas they were profitable in the previous year. The profits made by power and heating production and supply industry witnessed a sharp decline. If the aforementioned two industries were not included, the profits made by the enterprises went up by 37.5 percent over the same period last year, or 6.1 percentage points higher.
3. Investment in fixed assets enjoyed steady growth and the proportion of investment in central and western areas increased. In the first quarter of this year, the investment in fixed assets of the country was 2,184.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 24.6 percent, or a rise of 0.9 percentage point as compared with the growth in the same period last year. The investment in urban areas reached 1,831.7 billion yuan, up by 25.9 percent, or 0.6 percentage point higher while that in rural areas was 352.9 billion yuan, up by 18.3 percent, or a rise of 1.6 percentage points. The investment in real estate development in urban areas was 468.8 billion yuan, up by 32.3 percent, or 5.4 percentage points higher than that in the same period last year. The investment in the primary industry, secondary industry and the tertiary industry in urban areas went up by 80.8 percent, 25.9 percent and 25.3 percent respectively; that in east, central and western areas grew by 22.3 percent, 35.2 percent and 27.7 percent respectively. The proportion of investment in central and western areas out of the national total rose by 1.5 and 0.2 percentage points over that in the same period last year.
4. Sales on domestic markets accelerated and the growth of both urban and rural consumption rose hand in hand. In the first quarter, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 2,555.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year rise of 20.6 percent (up by 21.5 percent in March) which was 5.7 percentage points higher than that in the same period last year. The retail sales in urban areas reached 1,737.7 billion yuan, up by 21.2 percent, and the retail sales at and below county level stood at 817.8 billion yuan, up by 19.3 percent. Grouped by different sectors, the sales by wholesale and retail businesses was 2,149.0 billion yuan, up by 20.4 percent and that by lodging and catering industry was 368.7 billion yuan, up by 23.6 percent. Among
scarlett.c 发布在 粮草先行
|
发布时间: 07:02PM Apr 17, 2008
|
中国首季经济数据隐含忧虑
| 中国首季经济数据隐含忧虑 |
| |
| 作者：摩根大通中国证券市场部主席李晶(Jing Ulrich)为英国《金融时报》撰稿 |
| 2008年4月17日 星期四 |
| |
|
中国3月份消费者价格指数(CPI)同比增长8.3%，较2月份8.7%的近12年高点有所放缓。CPI增长放缓反映出在2008年初的严重雪灾后，食品供应出现了复苏。综合3月份的数据，今年第一季度中国消费者价格同比上涨8%。 |
 |
China's consumer price index for March eased to 8.3% YoY, from the near 12-year record of 8.7% in February. The moderation in CPI reflected a recovery in food supplies, after the severe winter storms in early-2008. Taking into account the March figure, consumer prices for the first quarter have risen by 8% YoY. |
| |
|
|
猪肉、蛋、粮食等主要食品相对短缺，是中国近来通胀背后的驱动因素，短缺源自于一些结构性因素和周期性因素的综合影响。随着中国收入的增长，对肉类和奶制品的需求有所上升——这对玉米和大豆等饲料的需求产生了倍乘效应。 |
China's recent inflation has been driven by the relative scarcity of staple food items such as pork, eggs and grains - which is due to a combination of structural and cyclical factors. As incomes rise in China, demand increases for meat and dairy products - which has a multiplier effect on demand for feed grains such as corn and soy. |
| |
|
|
为了应对围绕中国食品供应稳定性的担忧，政府出台了一些价格管控举措，并为种植粮食和饲养牲畜的农户提供了一系列激励措施。本月早些时候发布的国务院工作日程，将严控粮食出口列为今年的要务。农业部近期发布的数据表明，1至2月份中国农产品贸易从去年同期的顺差转为逆差，这反映出国内供应短缺及政府措施的影响。 |
Responding to concern about the stability of the country's food supplies, the government has introduced price controls and provided a series of incentives to grain and livestock farmers. The State Council's work agenda for 2008, published earlier this month, cited strict controls of grain exports as a priority for the year. Reflecting a domestic supply shortfall and the impact of government measures, recently released data from the Ministry of Agriculture show that China's trade in farm produce was in deficit in the Jan-Feb period, from a surplus in the same period last year. |
| |
|
|
价格管控有所放松 |
Price controls ease |
| |
|
|
随着通胀从2月份天气因素导致的上升中回落，一些食品企业向政府申请提价获准。国家发改委3月26日批准光明牛奶(Bright Dairy)和石家庄三鹿提价，4月1日批准丰益国际(Wilmar)的某些食用油提价。 |
With inflation easing from a weather-induced spike in February, some food companies have successfully applied to the government for the right to increase prices. The NDRC approved price increases for Bright Dairy and Shijiazhuang Sanlu's selected milk products on March 26 and Wilmar's selected retail edible oil on April 1. |
| |
|
|
尽管中国政府在价格管控方面表现出了一定的灵活性，但这并不一定显示通胀期的结束。实际上，在未来数月，食品价格上涨将会给CPI中的食品部分带来一定影响。 |
Although the government has shown flexibility with price controls, this does not necessarily signal an end of the inflationary period. Indeed, higher food prices will have an impact on the food component of CPI in the months ahead. |
| |
|
|
进一步加息空间？ |
Further room to raise rates? |
| |
|
|
美联储(Federal reserve)的降息行动，引起了中国当局对于两国利差不断扩大的关注，这将给人民币带来上行压力。第一季度中国的资金流入有所提速，原因是投资者押注于人民币升值及中国国内利率上调。 |
The US Federal reserve's easing program has made authorities mindful of the widening interest rate differential, which exerts upward pressure on the yuan. Fund inflows into China have accelerated in the first quarter, as investors bet on a stronger yuan and rising domestic interest rates. |
| |
|
|
不过，中国央行(PboC)行长近日指出，央行方面将保持警惕，并暗示仍有进一步加息空间。目前仍存在进一步紧缩货币政策的可能性，但鉴于当前一轮通胀主要是一种供应面的现象，人们并不清楚加息举措的有效性。在目前全球经济放缓的情况下，对于经济增长的担忧，也限制了紧缩货币政策的空间。 |
Nevertheless, China's central bank governor recently indicated that the PBoC would remain vigilant and suggested there was room to raise interest rates further. Tighter monetary policy remains a possibility, but with the current bout of inflation largely a supply-side phenomenon, it is not clear how effective interest rate rises would be. In the midst of a global slowdown, the scope for a tighter monetary policy is also constrained by concerns about growth. |
| |
|
|
对于经济增长的担忧？ |
Concerns about growth? |
| |
|
|
第一季度中国经济增长率为10.6%，较去年第四季度的11.2%有所放缓。 |
China's economy expanded by 10.6% in the first quarter, from 11.2% in 4Q07. |
| |
|
|
陷于困境的美国经济需求下降，已经影响了中国的出口数据。第一季度中国出口同比增幅从上年同期的27.8%降至21.4%，一些官员对出口放缓对国内经济的潜在影响感到忧虑。 |
Lower demand from a troubled US economy has already dented China's export figures. With China's export growth slowing to 21.4% YoY in the first quarter, from 27.8% in the same period last year, officials are concerned about the potential impact on the domestic economy. |
| |
|
|
2007年，总出口相当于总体经济的36%，而贸易顺差在中国国内生产总值(GDP)增长中所占的比例约为20%。贸易顺差一直是流动性过剩的一个主要来源，而贸易顺差的不断收窄，有利于抵御通胀。但是，这同时也是担心经济增长可能放缓的中国政府的另一隐忧。 |
Total exports amounted to 36% of the overall economy in 2007, while the trade surplus accounts for about a fifth of China's GDP growth. A narrowing of the trade surplus, which has been a major source of excess liquidity, would support the fight against inflation. But it is also an additional concern for authorities concerned about a potential slowdown in growth. |
| |
|
|
中国国务院网站4月1日发布的一项公告强调了2008年政府的工作要点。首要目标表明，政府打算优化宏观调控措施的使用，同时保持经济增长势头、防止经济减速。这是数年来中国高层领导人首次对经济增长放缓表示担忧。未来一段时期，决策者将努力在遏制通胀和保障经济稳步增长这两大目标之间保持一种良好的平衡。 |
An announcement posted on China's State Council web site on April 1 highlighted the government's priorities for 2008. The first of several objectives expressed the government's aim to optimize the use of macro-tightening measures, while maintaining the momentum of economic growth and preventing a slowdown. This is the first time in several years that China's senior leaders appear concerned about an economic slowdown. Going forward, policy makers will try to maintain a fine balance between the twin objectives of containing inflation and ensuring a steady pace of growth in the economy. |
| |
|
|
译者/贺斌 | |
scarlett.c 发布在 粮草先行
|
发布时间: 06:56PM Apr 17, 2008
|
Tuesday Dec 25, 2007
tiger的story
注意注意：
幼虎=tiger cubs
孟加拉虎=Bengal tiger
西伯利亚虎=东北虎=Siberian tiger
被剥皮=skinned
身首异处 beheaded
stillborn 死产的
附：Chinese tiger cubs found dead in refrigerator Mon Dec 24, 12:25 PM ET
BEIJING (Reuters) - Two dead Bengal tiger cubs have been found in a refrigerator at a zoo in China, where the animal's body parts are prized as medicines, in the second such incident within a week.
The cubs were discovered at the Three Gorges Forest Wild Animal World in Yichang, Hubei Province, where a rare Siberian tiger was found skinned and beheaded last week, the official Xinhua news agency said on Monday.
The two cubs were stillborn on November 28 and instead of reporting the deaths to the local forestry bureau in line with regulations, the zookeepers put the corpses in the refrigerator "for better preservation," Xinhua said.
They only told authorities about the deaths after an investigation was launched over the weekend, it cited Cao Guangyi, spokesman with the Yichang Forestry Bureau, as saying.
"The bureau has ordered the zoo to shape up its management and make the laws and regulations on wildlife protection better understood among the employees," Xinhua quoted Cao as saying.
The Beijing News had reported earlier the cubs were Siberian tigers and that they were found at a zoo in the southwestern province of Chongqing.
Xinhua said forestry police were investigating last week's case of the skinned and beheaded female Siberian tiger.
China breeds Siberian tigers as a way to protect one of the world's most endangered species, which mostly lives in northeast China and Russia.
Lack of funds has been blamed for a number of macabre incidents involving tigers in zoos in China. Last month, underfed tigers in a zoo in northern China turned on each other, killing one of them and eating it.
The zoo at which the dead cubs were found, home to more than 100 species of animals, is staffed by just five employees, Xinhua said.
"The zoo is losing money," it quoted zookeeper Wang Jiangxiang as saying. "Since this month, we have had only 20 visitors."
(Reporting by Jason Subler; Editing by Charles Dick)
scarlett.c 发布在 蒸蒸日上
|
发布时间: 10:33PM Dec 25, 2007
|
Monday Jul 16, 2007
[蒸蒸日上]private notes(6)奥运材料
light the passion share the drean
点燃激情传递梦想 [ 阅读全文]
scarlett.c 发布在 蒸蒸日上
|
发布时间: 07:46PM Jul 16, 2007
|
Friday Jul 06, 2007
[初出茅庐]293 roads in Chaoyang district will be digitally managed
Beijing Times July 6th, 2007[阅读全文]
scarlett.c 发布在 初出茅庐
|
发布时间: 11:11PM Jul 06, 2007
|
[初出茅庐]Business Climate Index
July 5th,2007 [阅读全文]
scarlett.c 发布在 初出茅庐
|
发布时间: 11:09PM Jul 06, 2007
|
[初出茅庐]BOCOG Media Operations
July 4th, 2007 Olympic Press Center[阅读全文]
scarlett.c 发布在 初出茅庐
|
发布时间: 11:07PM Jul 06, 2007
|
[初出茅庐]govenment cars
Beijing Times, July 4th, 2007 [阅读全文]
scarlett.c 发布在 初出茅庐
|
发布时间: 11:06PM Jul 06, 2007
|
[初出茅庐]CEPA
July 2th, 2007[阅读全文]
scarlett.c 发布在 初出茅庐
|
发布时间: 11:04PM Jul 06, 2007
|
Wednesday May 23, 2007
[蒸蒸日上]private notes(5)新闻翻译<2>
有事钟无艳 无事夏迎春[阅读全文]
scarlett.c 发布在 蒸蒸日上
|
发布时间: 11:11PM May 23, 2007
|
日志归档日历
新闻种子设置
搜索网志
链接
导航
引用
| |